Breaking Down the Big Show: Who Will Rule the Lava Fields in Kona 2024?
After fine-tuning his swim and learning from his 2022 penalty, Magnus Ditlev's otherworldly bike power and improved run will overpower a stacked field on the Big Island.
After diving deep into the data, watching the press conferences, and analysing recent performances, let's break down the top contenders for Saturday's World Championship - and why I'm backing Magnus Ditlev for the win.
Shawn Smith
Sam Laidlow - The Defending (Nice) Champion
The 24-year-old Frenchman arrives with supreme confidence after his win in Nice and that memorable second place in Kona 2022. His strategy is no secret: swim front pack, demolish the bike (his 4:04:35 split in 2022 remains the course record), then hold on during the run. But can the same playbook work again?
What fascinates me about Sam is how he's matured. Two years ago he was the plucky underdog pushing the pace. Now he's the defending champion with a target on his back. His run has improved dramatically - from 2:55 in St. George to 2:41 in Nice. But the real question is: with everyone expecting his bike attack this time, can he still build enough of a buffer?
Kristian Blummenfelt - The Angry Viking
Big Blu arrives with unfinished business after his Olympic disappointment and that 3rd place in Kona 2022. His performance in Frankfurt just two weeks after Paris - including that viral pit stop moment - showed he's primed for something special.
The scary thing about Kristian is that Frankfurt wasn't even his A-game. He's had two more months to fine-tune and as he said in the press conference, "I don't want to wait another two years for revenge." A motivated Blummenfelt is a dangerous Blummenfelt.
Magnus Ditlev - The Great Dane
Here's why I'm picking Magnus for the win: He's addressed his one weakness (the swim), his bike is otherworldly (just ask anyone who witnessed his Roth performance) and most importantly - he's learned from his 2022 Kona experience where a penalty derailed his race.
The 26-year-old has been meticulously preparing at altitude in Boulder. His 7:23 in Roth showed he can handle the full distance in extreme conditions. If he exits the swim within 90 seconds of the leaders - which his recent performances suggest he can - watch out.
Gustav Iden - The Defending (Kona) Champion
The 2022 winner arrives as something of an enigma. After personal struggles and a challenging 2023, he's shown glimpses of form with a win at Challenge Turku and second place in Samarkand. But his own coach has publicly tempered expectations.
Gustav's 2:36:14 marathon course record from 2022 shows what he's capable of at his best. But going from half-distance racing straight to defending in Kona is a massive ask, even for someone of his caliber.
Patrick Lange - The Kona Specialist
Never count out a two-time champion, especially one who just ran a blistering 2:32 marathon in Nice. At 38, Patrick's running prowess in the heat remains unquestioned. But with the level of cycling firepower in this year's field, will he have too much ground to make up off the bike?
Why I'm Betting on Magnus
Here's my prediction for how Saturday unfolds: Sam and Magnus collaborate on the bike to break away, potentially with help from Robert Kallin. They'll build a lead of 6-8 minutes into T2. Kristian will run tremendously, but Magnus - having learned from Nice - will have saved just enough to hold him off.
Final Podium Prediction:
- Magnus Ditlev
- Kristian Blummenfelt
- Sam Laidlow
- Lionel Sanders (my dark horse for a vintage performance)
The wildcard? The Ho'omumuku winds. If they're raging on the Queen K, all predictions go out the window. That's what makes Kona special - the island always has the final say.
